My 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot

On January 23rd, 2024 the BBWAA will announce the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2024. This year’s ballot has 12 players on the ballot for the first time and 14 players returning to the ballot (only one of whom is in their last year of eligibility). Each voter is allowed to vote for up to 10 players on the ballot and according to the Hall of Fame’s website, “Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”

With that being said, here is my 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, if I had one:

Billy Wagner (9th Year on Ballot)

Career: 27.7 bWAR, 2.31 ERA, 422 Saves

Awards: 7x All Star, 1x Rolaids Relief Man

In his 16 year career, Wagner accumulated the 6th most saves all time and the second most saves all time by a left-handed pitcher. Among pitcher who have exclusively relieved, Wagner has the 5th lowest ERA (min. 100 games). At the time of writing, he is the only pitcher of those five who has played more than 5 seasons in the MLB, maintaining a 2.31 ERA in 853 games (second most of the five is 219 games). In 15 of his 16 years in the league, he maintained an ERA+ of 140 or better and in 6 of those seasons had an ERA+ of 240 or higher. Among relief pitchers with a minimum of 400 games pitched, Wagner has the 10th highest save percentage. Throughout his career, he was one of the most effective and most consistent relievers in baseball. People like to point to his struggles in the postseason as to one reason why Wagner has not yet been inducted into the Hall of Fame, however with only 14 appearances in the postseason, I do not think that it should take away from the other 853 games he pitched. With only 8 closers in the Baseball Hall of Fame, I find it hard to believe that Billy Wagner does not belong among them. Compared to the other 8, Wagner has a lower career ERA than 4 of the (Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Hoyt Wilhelm), has the second highest ERA+ (Mariano Rivera), and has the 4th most saves.

Todd Helton (6th Year on Ballot)

Career: 61.8 bWAR, .316 BA, 369 HR

Awards: 5x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, MLB Batting Title, Hank Aaron Award

First things first, let’s discuss the elephant in the room. Helton played his entire career in Colorado, which has quite the reputation for being hitter-friendly. Despite having the highest Park Factor in the majors with 112, implying it “easy” to hit there, comparatively it only leads MLB parks by 4 (Fenway Park, 108). Helton played 17 seasons in Colorado and is the franchise leader in WAR, Runs, Hits, RBI, Home Runs, and WPA. Given that “contributions to the team(s) on which the player played” is explicitly stated in the voting description on the Hall of Fame’s website, it is difficult to deny Helton’s impact on the Rockies as an organization. To make Helton’s case for the Hall of Fame fair, let’s look at his stats when adjusted for park factor. Helton had a 133 OPS+, meaning he was 33% better than the average hitter throughout his career. Since his debut in 1997, he has the 26th highest OPS+ among batters with 5000+ ABs, trailing only 4 current Hall of Famers (Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero) and ahead of the likes of Ken Griffey, Jr., Scott Rolen, Derek Jeter, and Ivan Rodriguez. Helton is also one of only 49 players in major league history to have played 17+ years for one franchise, which is an accomplishment in and of itself. Of those 49 players, 34 are in the Hall of Fame and 2 are sure bets to make the Hall of Fame when they become eligible. Helton was also the first player in major league history to record 35+ doubles for 10+ consecutive seasons and the only player in major league history to record back-to-back seasons with 100+ extra base hits. His career .316 average, 2500+ hits, 550+ doubles, and 250+ home runs puts him elite company, as the only other player to record those stats is Stan Musial. Hopefully the induction of long-time Rockies player, Larry Walker, in 2020 helps Helton get past the stigma of playing in Colorado and gets him inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Adrian Beltre (1st Year on Ballot)

Career: 93.5 bWAR, 477 HR, 3166 H

Awards: 4x All Star, 5x Gold Glove, 4x Platinum Glove, 4x Silver Slugger

This one feels self-explanatory. Beltre was one of the premier third basemen in baseball for 2 decades. With his electric personality, and surpassing the 300+ HR and 3000+ hits milestone, Beltre is destined for the Hall of Fame. Among third basemen, Beltre is the all-time leader in hits, RBI, and runs; and 3rd all-time in home runs. Among Dominican born players, Beltre has the 2nd most hits (Albert Pujols), 3rd most RBI (Pujols, Manny Ramirez), 4th most RBI (Pujols, Ramirez, Ortiz), and 5th most home runs (Pujols, Sammy Sosa, Ramirez, Ortiz). In his career, Beltre hit for the cycle 3 times, which makes him only one of 5 players all-time to accomplish the feat (Christian Yelich, Trea Turner, Babe Herman, Bob Meusel). On his baseball-reference page, of the 10 most similar batters to Beltre, 7 are in the Hall of Fame, 1 is almost guaranteed to be in the Hall of Fame when he becomes eligible, and the other 2 have strong cases to make the Hall of Fame. With comparisons like that, Beltre should almost certainly be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

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Those three are the guys that unequivocally belong in the Hall of Fame, but given I am allowed 10 votes, I plan to use all of them, even if it just to try to keep some guys over the minimum requirement to stay on the ballot with hopes of them making it in future years.

Bartolo Colon (1st Year on Ballot)

Career: 46.2 bWAR, 247 W, 2535 SO

Awards: 4x All Star, Cy Young

“Big Sexy” pitched in 21 seasons for 11 teams. Officially retiring in 2023, but pitching in his last major league game in 2018, Colon is Hall of Fame eligible. Colon was not the most dominant pitchers of his time, but he was beloved and one of the most persistent pitchers in baseball. Since his debut in 1997, Colon ranks 3rd in wins and 9th in strikeouts. Not only is he the oldest player in major league history to hit his first home run (42 years and 349 days old), but he is the all-time winningest Latin American-born pitcher. and Colon has the 2nd most strikeouts among Dominican-born pitchers (Pedro Martinez), and is ahead of Hall of Famer, Juan Marichal. Colon also is one of 21 pitchers in major league history to recorda win against all 30 teams. Despite not reaching the 3000 strikeout plateau and having a career ERA over 4.00, Colon deserves recognition as one of the all-time greats and one of the greatest Dominican pitchers of all time.

Bobby Abreu (5th Year on Ballot)

Career: 60.2 bWAR, .291 BA, 288 HR

Awards: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger

Bobby Abreu may not be the first player you think of when you think of Hall of Fame caliber players, however in his 18 seasons in the majors, I think he makes a compelling argument. He falls short of the 3000 hit and 300 HR plateau, but his career .291 average and 128 OPS+ cannot be ignored. In 15 of his 18 seasons, he played in over 100 games and in 14 played in 151 games or more. He is one of 2 players in major league history to play in 150+ games for 13 consecutive seasons (Willie Mays), which is a major league record. Of those 15 100+ game seasons, he never hit below .250 and was a reliable presence in the lineup. Abreu is one of only 11 players in major league history to record 200+ home runs and 400+ stolen bases. He also had 9 seasons with 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases, which is the 3rd most 20-20 seasons all-time (Barry Bonds, 10; Bobby Bonds, 10). In his long career, he somewhat quietly accumulated an impressive resume and built a reputation of consistency.

Carlos Beltran (2nd Year on Ballot)

Career: 70.1 bWAR, 435 HR, .279 BA

Awards: 9x All Star, Rookie of the Year, World Series Champion, 2x Silver Slugger, Roberto Clemente Award

Beltran received only 46.5% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, and I think that’s mainly due to his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros scandal. If it weren’t for that, I think Beltran would be well on his way to Cooperstown. Not only was Beltran a switch-hitting power threat, he was an elite defensive outfielder. He is only the 8th player in major league history to have 300 career home runs and 300 career stolen bases and the first switch-hitter to accomplish the feat. With 435 career home runs, Beltran ranks 2nd among Puerto-Rican born players (Carlos Delgado). His 2725 hit ranks his 3rd all-time among Puerto-Rican born players (Roberto Clemente, Ivan Rodriguez) and puts him ahead of Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar and Orlando Cepeda. During the 2000s, he was one of the premier 5-tool players and he deserves to have a plaque hanging in the Hall of Fame.

Honorable Mentions: Joe Mauer, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones